Listen to and/or read the transcript for the the PBS Newshour story on public opinion polling and prediction markets and answer the questions below as you watch.

 

 

1. What are 3 different groups/methods used to predict the outcome of presidential and other elections?

 

2. What are electronic prediction markets?

 

3. What 4 variables does professor Fair's economic model use to predict the outcome of the presidential race?

 

4. How accurate is the Fair model?

 

5. What is the accuracy of the typical political poll?

 

6. What methods do pollsters use to guarantee a random sample and an accurate poll? List as many as you can!

 

7. Out of 100 phone calls how many people answer the polling questions?

 

8. What criticism does predictwise.com's David Rothschild make about many polls?

 

9. Who does Rothschild trust more, prediction markets or polls, and why?